The Expansion Retracement Model — And How To Confirm Direction
Expansion → Retracement → Expansion. The bread-and-butter continuation model — take out the liquidity, fill the gap, retrace into a discount array, and deliver to the draw. Here's the full read, including the single cleanest way to confirm which direction price is actually going.
Expansion away from the low → retracement into a discount array (the CISD) → buy program activates at the EQ → expansion to the draw.
The context — SSL taken, NWOG filled
Before any entry, the setup has to earn it. Here, price swept the sell-side liquidity (the 1H SSL) AND filled the New Week Opening Gap. Both jobs done — the liquidity below is taken and the weekly gap is balanced.
That's the fuel. Once the algorithm has run the stops and rebalanced the gap, there's nothing left holding price down, and the path to the draw above opens up.
Confirming direction — FVGs in the direction of the draw
The easiest way to confirm which way price is going: look at which direction the FVGs are printing. If your perceived draw on liquidity is up, you want to see bullish FVGs stacking toward it.
This is the single cleanest read-check in the whole model. FVGs printing toward your draw = the algorithm is delivering that way. FVGs printing against it = your draw is probably wrong. Let the gaps tell you.
The entry — the CISD is the first Discount Array
The CISD isn't just confirmation of the shift — it's the first discount array, the first PDA price offers below the EQ. That's where the buy program activates.
This is the Expansion Retracement entry: expansion up off the low, retracement back down into the discount (the OTE, 0.62–0.79), and the CISD sitting there as the array to buy from. Enter the retracement, not the expansion.
The delivery — buy program at the EQ, then the draw
Once price retraces into the discount and the buy program activates at the EQ, the second expansion delivers up to the target — the First Target, then on toward the draw at the 1H BSL.
That's the whole model in one line: expansion, retracement into a discount array (the CISD), then expansion to the draw. Take the middle leg, ride the last one.
Let the FVGs tell you the direction.
You don't have to guess where price is going. If your draw is up, the gaps should print up toward it — that's the algorithm showing its hand. Pair that read with the model — liquidity taken, gap filled, retracement into the CISD — and you're aligning with delivery instead of predicting it.
The Expansion Retracement model, the CISD, the 4 stages of APD — all taught in Volume 1. We hunt it live on Discord every trading day.