Liquidity Hunting · Two Shorts
July 20 — Price Closed At The Exact Low I Called
This morning's bias named the draw before the open: the equal lows are the DOL — sweep them, then reverse higher. Price spent the entire session delivering to exactly that, and closed the day sitting on the Asia/London Lows SSL at 28,762.75. Two shorts taken into the draw. Both entered later than optimal — and this recap breaks down where the best entry actually was.
2 SHORTSNQ / MNQ FuturesJuly 20, 2026Draw Delivered ✓Bias Called It ✓
The Session — Two Shorts Into The Draw
MNQ 1-min · Stop raid → CISD → short · then Expansion → Retracement → Expansion
Trade 1 — The Reversal Short
Price raided the stops above the high — buy-side liquidity taken, and that's the fuel. A CISD followed, confirming delivery had flipped. I was waiting on a 1H gap above us to get filled before committing, and it never filled. So instead of taking the first presentation, I entered after the inverse of it — a little lower than the perfect entry, but with the FVG already proven as resistance. Trimmed at the LRL, second trim lower as it expanded.
Trade 2 — The ER Model
Expansion → Retracement → Expansion. Price expanded down, retraced into premium, and I took the continuation short into the next expansion. Entered a bit late again — but with that daily gap above still unfilled, I leaned on additional confluences to justify the entry rather than the cleanest price.
Where The Best Entry Actually Was
Not where I entered — where the model says to enter
The reversal short had a clean three-step sequence, and each step is a decision point:
01
The Stop Raid — the fuel
Price ran the stops above the high. Buy-side liquidity is now taken. This is what makes a reversal possible — the market collected what it needed.
02
The CISD — the confirmation
Delivery changed state. This is the signal that the direction flipped. Everything before this is anticipation; everything after is a plan.
03
The CISD — AND the entry
The CISD isn't just confirmation, it's the entry level. Price returning to that CISD is where the short goes on. It sits above the 1st FVG, which means better price, tighter stop above the raid high, and more risk-to-reward than any PDA below it. The confirmation and the entry are the same level — that's the efficiency of the model.
The Real Tradeoff
I entered after the inversion of the first presentation instead — well below the CISD. Lower price, worse RR, but the level had already proven itself as resistance. That's the honest tension in every entry: the CISD gives you the best price with less proof. Waiting for the inversion gives you proof at a worse price. Neither is wrong. But the CISD already wasthe confirmation — so waiting past it means paying for certainty I already had. That's the entry to take next time.
The Draw Delivered — To The Tick
Price closed the session sitting on the Asia/London Lows SSL — the exact draw named pre-market
This Is Why The Bias Gets Posted First
Before the open I wrote that the equal lows were the DOL — the pool price wanted to take before any move higher. The session did exactly that and finished the day resting on it, with SMT against ES printing right at the low. Anyone can say "I called it" after the close. The page was public before the bell. Go read it and judge it yourself.
The Session
Draw Hit
To The Tick
To The Tick
Trades taken2 shorts
Draw calledEQL / SSL ✓
Closed at28,762.75
Entry qualityBoth late
The Receipt
Posted Before The Open
"The EQLs are the draw — sweep them, then reverse higher." Published pre-market. Price closed on them.
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