Reversal · LH CISD Short · A-
September 24 — Short The Reaction, Then Let The Bias Run.
One trade, one win. The morning bias was bullish off the Daily Bullish FVG — but before that played out, price gave a clean reversal short inside the session. Highs taken, bearish SMT with ES, LH CISD, indicator alerted. Short into the 15m BISI for +2R. Graded A-, not A+, because it was a short inside a bullish HTF array. After lunch, the long side of the bias finally delivered.
WIN · +2RReversalLH CISD · Indicator AlertedSMT With ESA- · Against HTF Array
The Trade — Reversal Short Off The Highs
MNQ 1m · LH CISD short · +2R
Price pushed up into the highs around 30,644 and took them. ES didn't confirm — bearish SMT — and the lower high that followed printed the LH CISD, with the indicator alerting right on it. Entry off the CISD, stop above the highs. I marked the EQ of the range on the way down and took first TP into the 15m BISI below. Closed out +2R. Then around 12:15 the long side of the morning bias went, straight back up through the highs.
Bias vs. The Trade In Front Of You
A bullish bias doesn't make every short wrong. It changes how you grade it.
The morning read said the Daily Bullish FVG should hold and carry price toward the Equal Highs. That read was right — it just delivered after lunch. Before that, the session handed me a textbook reversal the other way: highs swept, SMT with ES, LH CISD, indicator confirming. Every piece of the model was there.
What the bias did was cap the grade. A short sitting inside a bullish HTF array can't be A+, no matter how clean the entry looks. So it gets taken as an A-, with a realistic target: the nearest array below, not a full reversal of the daily picture. That's why first TP was the 15m BISI, not something deeper.
The bias tells you where the big move is likely going. The model tells you what trade is actually available right now. Today they pointed different directions for a couple of hours, and respecting both is what paid.
What the bias did was cap the grade. A short sitting inside a bullish HTF array can't be A+, no matter how clean the entry looks. So it gets taken as an A-, with a realistic target: the nearest array below, not a full reversal of the daily picture. That's why first TP was the 15m BISI, not something deeper.
The bias tells you where the big move is likely going. The model tells you what trade is actually available right now. Today they pointed different directions for a couple of hours, and respecting both is what paid.
The Grade
Win · +2R
Grade A-
Grade A-
Trades taken1
Result+2R
StageReversal
EntryLH CISD (indicator alerted)
ConfirmationBearish SMT with ES
Why not A+Short inside a Daily Bullish FVG
Why Post Every Day
Wins, breakevens, and the days I sit on my hands all get posted. The record only means something if it's complete. No hype, just process.