Liquidity Hunting · ER Model · Grade A
July 23 — I Called The Shorts Before The Open. The Profile Delivered.
Yesterday's bias called it: bearish, into the draw below, and today was the Thursday reversal leg of a Classic Midweek Reversal. One trade — a Grade A Expansion → Retracement → Expansion short, delivering from a Daily SIBI down to the draw I called on stream. Took an early exit when ES tagged its target first (SMT), but the read was clean start to finish.
1 SHORT · GRADE AER ModelNQ / MNQ FuturesJuly 23, 2026Bias Called It ✓
The Trade — Grade A ER Model Short
MNQ 1-min · Manipulation into the Daily SIBI → expansion down → retracement into the OTE → expansion to the draw
01
Manipulation — delivering from a Daily SIBI
Price ran higher into the Daily SIBI, above midnight — taking the buy-side and reaching the premium array it was going to deliver from. That's the manipulation leg: the setup, not the trade.
02
Expansion → Retracement
Displacement down off the SIBI (leaving the FVG), then the retracement back up into the premium. The OTE (0.62–0.79) is where I expect the reaction — but it's a reference for where to look, not the entry itself.
03
The entry — first PDA in the premium
The entry is the FIRST PDA in the premium — in this case the bearish FVG. That's the rule: not the OTE level itself, but the first array price offers inside that premium zone. Short off the bearish FVG, draw sitting well below. The whole setup graded A — weekly profile, above midnight, clear draw, delivering from a Daily SIBI.
04
The second expansion — to the draw
Price delivered down toward the target — the 'free money' zone called live on stream. The ER model did exactly what it's built to do: expansion, retrace, expansion, deliver.
05
Early exit — SMT with ES
Exited early when ES took out its target first. That SMT divergence is the tell that the move is running out of fuel — bank it rather than give it back. Read was right; management protected the win.
Why It Graded A
Fits the weekly profile — Thursday reversal leg
Above midnight
Clear draw on liquidity below
Delivering from a Daily SIBI (premium array)
The Bias Called The Shorts Pre-Market
Published before the open — not written after the close
Yesterday morning I posted a bearish lean toward the draw below and flagged that we were in a Classic Midweek Reversal — with Thursday as the reversal leg. Then the session delivered exactly that, and this short played the plan. The profile, the weekly structure, and the draw all agreed — and the market followed. Go read the bias; it was public before the bell.
The Session
Called It
Traded It
Traded It
Trades taken1 short
ModelER Model
GradeA
ExitEarly — SMT w/ ES
BiasDelivered ✓
The Receipt
Posted Before The Open
"Bearish lean, draw sits below — today is the Thursday reversal leg of a Classic Midweek Reversal." Published pre-market. Delivered.
Read The Bias →Learn It Free
The ER Model
Expansion → Retracement → Expansion, traded toward the Draw on Liquidity. Every chart broken down, free.
See The Breakdowns