No Trade · Right Draw · No Entry
October 1 — Right On The Draw, No Entry For Me.
No trade today. The bias was very bearish with the draw on the London and Asia lows, and price delivered lower into them. I was correct on the DOL. But it was a slow chop lower, and by the time it moved we'd generated LRL on both sides of the market. That left no clean side to stand on, so there was no entry for me.
NO TRADEBias Played OutSlow Chop LowerLRL Both Sides
Right Draw, Wrong Conditions
MNQ 1m · bearish delivery · LRL on both sides
The read was right. Price worked down from the morning highs and delivered through the London and Asia lows, chopping toward the 15m sell-side liquidity below. But it never delivered cleanly. It ground lower in rotation, and that rotation built low resistance liquidity above and below price. With easy liquidity on both sides, price has a reason to run either way. That's not a setup I can define a stop and a draw on.
The Lesson
Being right on the draw isn't an entry.
Direction being obvious is never the same as an entry being available. Today the bias was right and the draw got hit, but the conditions for an entry never showed up.
When the market builds LRL on both sides, it can run either way before it pays. If you were short today, ask yourself where your stop was and what made it safe. If you can't answer that cleanly, passing was the plan working, not the plan failing.
When the market builds LRL on both sides, it can run either way before it pays. If you were short today, ask yourself where your stop was and what made it safe. If you can't answer that cleanly, passing was the plan working, not the plan failing.
The Grade
No Trade · 0R
Bias Correct
Bias Correct
Net result0R
BiasVery bearish · played out
DrawLondon + Asia lows · hit
DeliverySlow chop lower
Why no entryLRL on both sides
Trades0
Why Post Every Day
Wins, breakevens, and the days I sit on my hands all get posted. The record only means something if it's complete. No hype, just process.