ER Model + Proxy CISD · Two Longs · A- / B-
October 12 — Right On The Bias, Two Small Losses, No Third Trade.
The lesson today: being right on the bias is not a reason to keep clicking. The plan was a sweep of the lows, then longs. Price did exactly that. It delivered lower, then ran 111 points higher, but I wasn't able to get aligned. Two longs, a half R each, −1R on the day. A third trade would have won, and I didn't take it.
LOSS · −1RER Model · Discount BISIProxy CISDA- / B-Bias Played Out
Would You Have Taken It?
Trade 2: a Proxy CISD long with clean equal lows sitting right under it. Would you have taken it?
✓
HTF draw above — The HTF draws were there. The idea was right.
✓
Proxy CISD — A great setup on its own.
✕
Lower timeframe — The LTF didn't look good enough. I took it anyway.
✕
No clean liquidity under the entry — NQ left almost perfect EQLs right below. On a Monday, I should have stayed away.
Trade 1 (ER model) had most of its list: below the midnight open, premarket consolidated, a stop raid, and a good draw on liquidity above. What it was missing was alignment, because price was falling back below the FVGs and the FP FVG. Lower probability, but one I would take again.
Trade 1 — ER Model From The Discount BISI
Long · target the BSL / EQHs above · −0.5R
Price sat below the midnight open after a premarket consolidation, then ran a stop raid into the 0.75–0.79 of the range. I went long from the discount BISI (around 30,972, stop near 30,953), targeting the EQHs up at 31,089. The catch: price kept falling back below the FVGs and the FP FVG. It never got going and took the stop for a half R.
Trade 2 — Proxy CISD Over The EQLs
Long · B- · −0.5R
The Proxy CISD printed with the HTF draws still above, and I went long around 30,886. But NQ had left almost perfect EQLs just below. Price did what clean equal lows do: it ran through them, took my stop near 30,868, and only then turned higher. Right idea, wrong spot.
What Happened Next
The bias delivered: lower first, then higher
From the low under the EQLs, price ran 111 points higher. That was the bias playing out. A third long would have won. But NQ had just failed at those EQLs, and ES had the same EQLs after NQ stopped me out. So I locked out. Taking it would have rewarded me for breaking my rules.
The Takeaway
Right on the bias, out of the trade? Don't tilt. Go to the next day.
Days like this are the test. You called it, the market delivered it, and you still aren't in it. That's when the third trade starts looking good. A winner that breaks your rules is still a bad trade, because it teaches you to break them again. Losing only 1R on a day like this is a good day.
Watch For Tomorrow
Before you enter, look below your stop for clean equal lows.
If there are almost perfect EQLs sitting just under your entry, that liquidity is a target. Price will often take it before it goes your way. Either wait for the sweep or stay away.
Vol 1 · Class 1 — Liquidity →Your Turn
Trade 2: Proxy CISD long, clean EQLs right under it. Take it or pass?
Answer in the Oraxis Discord. I reply to every one.
The Grade
Loss · −1R
A- / B-
A- / B-
Net result−1R
Trade 1 · ER−0.5R
Trade 2 · Proxy CISD−0.5R
BiasPlayed out
Move after111 pts
Trade 3Locked out
Why Post Every Day
Wins, breakevens, and the days I sit on my hands all get posted. The record only means something if it's complete. No hype, just process.