Discipline · A New Study Begins
September 15 — No Trade, But A Pattern Worth Naming.
No trades today. But looking back over the last few weeks, I'm seeing the same thing repeat: price reaching an HTF rejection wick right before the draw — and turning around there instead of running the rest of the way. Not a one-off. A pattern. Starting today I'm running a dedicated study on it, alongside Judas Swing at market open, which I don't have much recorded data on yet. Both will run for the next 60 days, logged here, publicly, so anyone following along can use the notes for their own charting.
NO TRADEHTF Rejection Wick Study — Day 1Judas At Open Study — Day 160-Day Study WindowSeptember 15, 2026
The Session — Naming The Pattern Before Chasing It
No chart posted · no trades taken · a recurring HTF rejection logged instead
No trade to show today — the value in this entry isn't the session, it's the pattern underneath it. Over the last few weeks, multiple draws that should have delivered never did: price ran into an HTF rejection wick sitting in front of the level and turned around right there instead of continuing to the DOL. That's not a reason to abandon the draw concept — it's a reason to find out which HTF wicks actually hold as rejection versus which get run through, before I build a rule around it.
The Next 60 Days
Recognizing a pattern is not the same as having a rule for it — that gap is what the study closes.
I've now watched enough draws get stopped short at the same kind of level to know it isn't noise: an HTF rejection wick sitting between price and the actual draw, and price turning around there instead of running through it. The instinct is to just start filtering those levels out on sight. The discipline is to actually track it first — which wicks hold, which get swept anyway, what separates the two — before it becomes a rule I trade off of.
Alongside that, I'm starting a parallel log on Judas Swing at the open, mostly because I realized I don't have real data on it yet, just a general feel. Two studies, both running for the next 60 days, both posted here as they develop — not as finished conclusions, but as the notes themselves, in case they're useful to anyone building out the same kind of read on their own charts.
Alongside that, I'm starting a parallel log on Judas Swing at the open, mostly because I realized I don't have real data on it yet, just a general feel. Two studies, both running for the next 60 days, both posted here as they develop — not as finished conclusions, but as the notes themselves, in case they're useful to anyone building out the same kind of read on their own charts.
The Grade
No Trade
Study Logged
Study Logged
Trades taken0
Pattern flaggedHTF rejection wick before the draw
Second studyJudas Swing at market open
Study windowNext 60 days, logged publicly
Why nowRepeated across recent weeks — not a one-off
Why Post Every Day
Wins, breakevens, and the days I sit on my hands all get posted. The record only means something if it's complete. No hype, just process.