September 16 — NQ A+ Only, Half Size

A genuinely difficult day to trade, and I'd rather name that in advance than find out at 10:30. Two things stack up: the higher timeframes look very wonky because of the contract rollover, so my bias lives on the 1H and nowhere else, and there's FOMC this afternoon. The path I can see is a reach up toward the PDH and then a sell-off back toward the 12am level. But the headline isn't the direction — it's the rule: A+ setups only, and half sizing.

A+ ONLY · HALF SIZENQ FuturesSeptember 16, 2026 · Pre-MarketFOMC This AfternoonHTF Distorted — Contract RolloverBias Is 1H OnlyPath: Reach PDH → Sell Toward 12am

The Read In 30 Seconds

HTF

Unusable today — contract rollover has the higher timeframes distorted

Where the bias lives

The 1H, and only the 1H

The path

Reach up toward the PDH, then sell off back toward the 12am level

The event

FOMC this afternoon — my window closes well before the release

The rule

A+ setups only, HALF SIZE — declared before the open

1H1H — The Only Timeframe I Trust Today1 / 1

NQ 1H — 1H — The Only Timeframe I Trust Today

Normally I build this read top-down, but the higher timeframes look very wonky right now because of the contract rollover — the charts are distorted by the roll, not by delivery, and reading structure off distorted candles is a good way to invent a narrative that isn't there. So today the bias lives on the 1H and nowhere else. What I can see cleanly here: a reach up toward the PDH, and then a sell-off back down toward the 12am level and the London low area. That's the path — with the caveat that I'm working with less information than usual and I'm treating it that way.

The One Thing To Respect

Two separate handicaps landed on the same session. The rollover means I'm reading with less information than usual — no higher-timeframe confirmation to lean on, just the 1H. And an event day changes how price behaves before the event, not only after it: my window closes at 11:00, long before the afternoon release, so what I'm actually trading is the pre-event coil. That's typically thin participation and false starts — moves that look like the beginning of something and aren't.

So the size rule does the heavy lifting today, and the important part is when it was set: half size was decided before the open, not after a loss.That's the difference between a rule and a reaction. A+ only also means the honest expectation is that I pass on most of what shows up — and passing is the plan working, not the plan failing. Two trades or −2R, whichever comes first.

Watch this play out live

We hunt liquidity live on Discord every trading day — and the recap gets posted win, lose, or no-trade.

Join The Discord — Free Last Recap →